Taking account of how things have progressed, I am reminded of how hard it can be to not only keep up on the information, but how difficult it can make our lives to repeatedly expose ourselves to the negative elements we are bound to discover. Still, it is vital to pay to attention, in our attempt to not be caught off-guard. I am aware that some cannot follow each and every podcast or article that I produce, so consider this an important update and perhaps a continuation of the my previous articles on the subject. What follows is a “No B.S. Assessment” of where things are currently at and where I think they are going.
For those of you who have read “RELOADED”, you are aware of certain factors in regard to economics and war that are almost unavoidable. We have been keeping an eye out for the economic upheaval that will transition into a massive war. Unfortunately, I believe we are smack-dab in the middle of this transition. But like a frog in a warm pot of water, it can be difficult to gauge just how fast the water is coming to a boil. This is especially true when we feel a cooler swirl around our legs every so often as the water turns. A lot of this has to do with the way news is reported anymore. Everything is provided in pieces, and with very few dots being connected.
For instance recently, a reader provided me an article from Reuters. This person was questioning my economic claims based on the fact that “Gold prices plunged to their lowest in more than five years on Monday, at one point dropping 4 percent on aggressive selling out of China, while the U.S. dollar hit a three-month high on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates.” Indeed, question with boldness. However, context is crucial and long-term analysis (both front and back) is essential. Let us not forget that in 1913, you could buy a suit and a gun for an ounce of gold. Today, you can still buy a suit and a gun for an ounce of gold. The variance is the value of the dollar and that is in constant flux because there is nothing physical to back it. This is because it is fiat.
In addition, while that article talked about the 33 tons sold in just minutes, it failed to take into account that China’s gold holdings grew by 604 tons to 1,658 tons since 2009. 33 tons – while still quite a bit – is not all that much in the grand scheme of things. But all of this is short-term misdirection anyway when you consider who bought it, but I digress. It really doesn’t mean much in the long run. The problem is that China had been seeking IMF acknowledgement of the yuan as an official reserve currency, on par with the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro and the British pound. This didn’t happen. China is making a move while at the same time, the Euro is failing, the dollar is only backed up petro, and several other world currencies are in the same economic/debt danger as the dollar. In other words; my claims still hold true.
Indeed, the dollar is rallying and has been for a time. But it is rallying based on contortion and that contortion can only go on so long. Economist John Williams explains that “the economy was never improving. Now, it’s not only not improving, but it is begging to turn down again. That’s the importance of quarter to quarter contraction. When you get that, you get official recognition that the economy is falling, and it is not recovering. So, as the expectations wane on the Fed tightening, you will start to see dollar selling. I think you are going to see a panic decline in the dollar at some point, massive selling of the dollar, not only that, it will take it down to levels of a year ago, but to historic lows. As that happens, you will see a tremendous spike in oil prices which will start moving the consumer price index pick up.” – Williams’ outlook for our economy is not exactly a bright one. But you’ll notice it is becoming a common theme… and there is a reason for it.
The government and the mainstream media are attempting to sell everyone on the idea that things are improving. For instance, they try to sell you on how unemployment is getting better by using something called a U-3 number (which means almost nothing). But we know this positive trend is not real. To demonstrate trend, back in September of 2014, the labor participation rate slid from an already three decade low, to the lowest in over 36 years. This June, it was reported that the labor participation rate of 62.6 percent, was the lowest since October of 1977. This is getting worse, not better. On a similar note, if you track unemployment the way it was tracked during the Great Depression, you’ll find the unemployment rate to be closer to 23.1% and rising, not 5.3% and lowering. Let me reiterate the idea that during the height of the Great Depression, unemployment was at 25%.
Even more evidence (besides the raw data of course); food stamp beneficiaries have exceeded 45 million for 48 straight months, 52 percent of U.S. households—more than half—now receive some kind of continual benefit from the government; this is up several percentage points from just a few years ago. Again; a bad trend and getting worse.
It’s all about playing with the numbers. For instance, the media has reported that the United States’ current debt to gross domestic product is roughly 72.5%, suggesting that by 2024, it could be over 100% – which would be really bad – so we should be doing something about it. Well, the International Monetary Fund seems to think we have long since passed 100% because they report our gross government debt as percentage of GDP at 106.5%… and rising. So who do you believe?
Every bad number seems to be on the rise; including taxation (which takes away more money for possible economic stimulus). The federal government took in a record $2,446,920,000,000 in tax revenues through the first nine months of fiscal 2015 – up over $178,156,270,000 from the previous year. The kicker, the government still runs a massive deficit with no end in sight. CNSNews did a great job of putting this into perspective for you, saying that “According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total seasonally adjusted employment in the United States in June (including both full and part-time workers) was 148,739,000. That means that the federal tax haul so far this fiscal year has equaled $16,451 for every person in the United States with a job.” – averaged of course.
But this brings up yet another interesting little fact to pay attention to. If both full and part-time workers equal 148,739,000, and if there are 318.9 million people living in the US; then that would mean that 170,660,000 people are not working at all. So basically, that means there are more takers than makers… by a long shot. Again, not exactly a positive trend.
So the question you need to answer for yourself is “why would a government and/or media want to provide the nice numbers instead of the real ones?” Not that it matters, because the outcome is the same. For instance, have you been paying attention to the economic struggles of places like Greece, Puerto Rico, China, Russia, etc? It’s evidence of a systemic problem. Things are picking up, not exactly slowing down. That’s where even BIGGER problems begin, primarily because this plan we all seem to be following is unsustainable. The odd part: no one really wants to address it.
Sure, all this is bad, but what follows is even worse. What most people don’t want to see is how all of this creates a platform global war. I think I have shown numerous examples throughout the years but let’s get a few extra opinions on the matter. I have talked about Dr. Paul Craig Roberts before – former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, former editor of the Wall Street Journal, listed by Who’s Who in America as one of the 1,000 most influential political thinkers in the world, and a PhD economist – who has said repeatedly and flat out – with no bones about it – that “War Is Coming”.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass has written that “Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.” Or how about Marc Faber who said that “The next thing the government will do to distract the attention of the people on bad economic conditions is they’ll start a war somewhere.” Of course, it doesn’t take stethoscope to hear to war drums as of late.
You need to understand that if the economic model isn’t changed drastically and extremely soon, there is an inevitable backlash and that backlash is war – and probably a huge one. This is not speculation, but recognized historical probability. Oxford University’s Quarterly Journal of Economics notes:
In his classic, A Study of War, Wright (1942) devotes a chapter to the relationship between war and resources. Another classic reference, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels by Richardson (1960), extensively discusses economic causes of war, including the control of “sources of essential commodities.” A large literature pioneered by Homer-Dixon (1991, 1999) argues that scarcity of various environmental resources is a major cause of conflict and resource wars (see Toset, Gleditsch, and Hegre 2000, for empirical evidence).
Even George Soros warned that unless the U.S. makes ‘major concessions’ and allows China’s currency to join the IMF’s basket of currencies, “there is a real danger China will align itself with Russia politically and militarily, and then the threat of world war becomes real.”
Right on cue… now look at what is happening. China is opening up the AIIB – a rival bank to the IMF and World Bank. Russia is doing the same with the BRICS. Russia and China have recently pledged both political and military cooperation and we have recently learned that their new banks will be working together. Soros was right on the money, and now both nations are positioning themselves for global military might. It’s not coincidence. It’s strategy.
Meanwhile, Israel and Saudi Arabia are looking to destroy the nuclear toys that President Obama has handed Iran. The EU is falling apart. The TPP is underway. Nations around the world are green-lighting their military expansions. China is on the move for resources in the South Pacific and Russia acts as though they are expecting war at any moment, not to mention their repeated bomber runs along the West Coast of the US and their threats against NATO over Ukraine and the Baltics.
Is this all set in stone? Of course not! But basic probability suggests that to ignore some of these extremely obvious warning signs would be a bad idea. I would like to again warn you about the distractions. Don’t get caught up in things that don’t make sense. If you weren’t angry about a flag a year ago, don’t allow yourself to be today. Something is going on over on the side they don’t want you to see (like the TPP). Because while you are being distracted, your wealth is being taken; your jobs are being removed; your fate is being sealed. Our nation is extremely weak right now, because we are divided, confused, and ignorant. We can only correct that through unity, clarification and study.
Now to the question everyone inevitably asks: How much time do we have?
Answer: Truthfully, I do not know for sure. But if history is a guide… it has either already begun or it surely cannot be far-off.