History Doesn’t Repeat – But It Does Rhyme
I have been asked a few times about the Cycles that I repeatedly refer to, so I thought I would share with you what I’ve been looking at and toying around with since about 1999. Keep in mind that this is not perfect because it’s not a science – it’s more of an art (if we can even call it that). I am aware that we can pick many different events and even alter the timeline if we try to. However, if we look at it in very general terms, we begin to see a very clear pattern throughout history.
With the information compiled and reverse engineering the timeline, I use the projection model I provided in my book, RELOADED: An American Warning, to better understand where we are headed. The way I see it, there are about two ways we can look at history to gauge this. You can go 61-10-10 or 60-10-10.
There seems to be a little play in the numbers, but it’s still pretty amazing when you see it. This boils down to having a 60-year “Lull,” which is generally prosperous, an economic upheaval (this is a financial [power] instigator) that lasts about ten years, and then a war that concludes within the following ten years.
I’ll show you what I mean. Here is the math starting with the Revolution (since I doubt anyone cares much about the previous parts of the cycle – though it can be done).
The Set-Up. The setup seems to be what leads to the financial or power struggle. Of course, there are always plenty of other little things which contribute, but this is what seems to set everything in motion. For example…
1763 – King George issues Proclamation of 1763, closing lands in North America north and west of Alleghenies to white settlement. This really angered the colonists.
1764 – James Otis publishes views on taxation without representation. That same year the colonists were subject to the Sugar and Currency Acts which dramatically impacted the colonists’ lives.
1765 – Stamp Act was passed; the 1st direct British tax on American colonists. This did not go over well.
Sure, there were a lot of things going on, but in this series, I focus on the Currency Act and taxes because (as we know) taxation was a huge part of it all.
The 10 Year Tell. This is when we know that things are actually coming to a head and cause and effect are in full swing. For the colonists, anyone would be hard-pressed to dispute the following:
1774 – The Intolerable Acts are put in place. The colonists had enough. The First Continental Congress meets in Philadelphia and issued Declaration and Resolves.
The War and 10 Year Resolution. This part can be tricky because the war is both the end of one cycle and the start of the next. For instance, the actual Revolutionary War was between 1775 and 1783. However, the Treaty was actually ratified in 1784. Also interesting… in 1783, the US began to trade with China. Either way, the war ended, and prosperity began. Yes, there were other conflicts, but they don’t hold the impact of changing the way the world does business. So we consider the time after the war a “lull,” and this lasts roughly 60 years.
Forward Roughly 60-61 years
1844 – (This is known as The Year That Remade America). Years of deflation in wages and prices ends. Polk becomes President. There is a gold rush. The U. S. House overturns the gag rule on abolitionist petitions.
1845 – Kelley Bank Bill of 1845. The US gains Texas as a slave state. U.S. President James K. Polk announced to Congress that the Monroe Doctrine should be strictly enforced and that the United States should aggressively expand into the West and American journalist John L. O’Sullivan claims in a newspaper article that the United States has a “Manifest Destiny” to expand its borders. It’s the second time he uses the term, and it will significantly influence the American imperialistic movement of the 19th century. (Rapid and increasing gov power follows)
The 10 Year Tell: 1854–1856: Kansas-Nebraska Act, Official founding of Republican Party and “Bleeding Kansas.” The nation was divided, and the war was well on the way. Republicans’ power swiftly grew from here, and we would be at war within five years.
The War and 10 Year Resolution: Civil War – 1861-1865
Also, think about the tech and medical innovation during this time. Completely changed the way the world did business.
Forward Roughly 60-61 years
1925 – Mussolini gains power. Mein Kampf is written, and the Nazis get their start. Britain goes back to Gold Standard – the global economy begins to show weakness. The US stock index was first calculated and published to guide a new generation of stock purchasers. “Broker Loans” (gambling on stocks) become popular – totaling over $3 billion – (fuels the crash to come).
1926 – Tech Boom (liquid fuel rockets, 1st Radio Fax, etc.) would be a recognized bubble in the following year. The housing price downturn in 1926 led to a rise in the foreclosure rate. Foreclosures of residential properties and farms increased substantially in 1926. A run on Belgium Banks – cracks in the global economy begin to really show and reverberate. France Falls. The Stock Market Crash of 1929 is underway… people don’t see it coming due to manipulation.
The 10 Year Tell: 1936 – Adolf Hitler decides the time is right for Germany to re-occupy the Rhineland. Adolf Hitler orders the economy and armed forces to be made ready for war. Italy invaded Ethiopia, Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy signed a treaty of cooperation, and Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan sign the Anti-Comintern Pact.
The War and 10 Year Resolution: WWII – 1939-1945 – *1946 – *1947 – *1948 – *1953
It’s hard to tell exactly where we should be looking in regard to the end of World War II. This has much to do with the idea that so much was going on and that so much continued after. Did it really end if it merely spawned new conflict? However, in regard to World War II specifically, we know the following:
U.S. President Harry S. Truman declares, “Although a state of war still exists, it is at this time possible to declare, and I find it to be in the public interest to declare, that hostilities have terminated. Now, therefore, I, Harry S. Truman, President of the United States of America, do hereby proclaim the cessation of hostilities of World War II, effective twelve o’clock noon, December 31, 1946.“
The Paris Peace Treaties were signed on 10 February 1947, and the “State of Israel” was proclaimed on May 14, 1948.
That being said, we should also pay attention to the initial “Cold War.” This began in 1947 as a result of a Soviet political takeover effort in Eastern Europe which began in 1945. This lasted until about 1953. At this point, I am unsure about how much of this we should be counting. In time, we will know.
Also, nukes, aircraft, etc. The amazing tech boom was underway.
Forward Roughly 60-61 years
Understanding that it could be as late as 2013
The POSSIBLE Set-Up
2006 – Currency Crisis begins. U.S. home prices peak as home ownership is starting to fall.
2007 / 2008 – iPhone is announced, and Artificial Intelligence is a reality. North Korea’s first nuclear test. Financial Crisis begins and will continue until 2008. Increases in foreclosures and delinquencies and a sharp drop in loans are seen. Collapse saved by manipulation – but we were warned it was just a Band-Aid because the economic model hasn’t changed and because the same mistakes are still being made.
2009 – In 2009, the financial crisis worsened. In March, the Dow hit bottom. The recession ended in July, but the unemployment rate rose to 10 percent in October 2009, the worst since the 1982 recession. Almost 6 million jobs were lost in the 12 months prior to that.
Something interesting to note here is that The Great Recession refers to the economic downturn between 2008 and 2013.
10 Year Tell? – 2016 – Britain votes to leave the EU, and other nations threaten the same. The US has major election issues, and the “Great American Divide” is mainstream. North Korea states that they have successfully tested a thermonuclear weapon. The world’s 62 richest people are now as wealthy as half the world’s population, and globalism and socialism have become very popular while others begin to discover the definition of tyrant and oligarch. Domestic and Global unrest increase. Credit cards, student loans, and personal-prime loans are all at crisis levels.
10 Year Tell? – 2017 – Donald Trump takes office, and the “Great American Divide” deepens to the point that it captures the world’s attention. Ignorance seems to be at an all-time high as people protest for things they already have and fight against activities they themselves engage in. “Vault 7” is released, and more people begin to wake up. A renewed interest in history is witnessed. Stocks repeatedly hit highs with little volume. Tax revenues are at a record high. Economic indicators show a dangerous condition, but those in power seek to distract.
10 Year Tell of 2018, 2019 to as late as 2023? – It’s hard to say because we are not there yet, but we are looking for a dramatic change in the way the world does business and a substantial reason for it. It could be a major market correction/crash, currency issue, artificial intelligence, or even robots.
Again, this is not perfect, but at the very least… it is compelling. Also, know that this is just a sample of the overall. I’m just sharing a sample because of some of the questions I have received lately.
Now… here is the scary part. If I am even remotely right, then we need to understand that the 10-Year Tell will peak soon. Based on what I am seeing… and running numbers in relation to the cycle and following trends, I would expect something significant in financials within the next several years and war to follow shortly after – starting in anywhere from months to a few years. Such a war could be global or civil, or both. The good news is that we should see an end to all of it and a new cycle around 2025-33 (give or take). If you are unfamiliar with any of this, I would again suggest RELOADED: An American Warning (SubCompact Edition)
Remember though… I cannot predict the future, and I am not saying I can. I’m only reviewing history’s repetition and attempting to apply projection in the hopes of glimpsing possible outcomes. What I am looking at (which I have provided you here) shows me a certain outcome. Also, keep in mind that these are not the only indicators that could be reviewed. These are just the ones that stick out to me. If you run a similar model, you may come up with completely different conclusions, and I would love to see them.
It should also be noted that I mark “the cycles” as follows: there is a change in the way the world does business (good or bad), the technology in the war (or because of the war) changes dramatically, and medical innovations see a jump. I didn’t add much of this to this document because I am trying to keep it relatively short. Again though, it’s important to keep things general and simple in an effort to remain objective.
Finally, the terms I use help me simplify something big. For example, “Great American Divide” is a term I created to simplify the fighting between the left and right or the globalists and constitutionalists; “The 10 Year Tell” is a term used to mark when everything was in motion and seemingly unstoppable. These are not official terms, and there is no doubt that the conclusion can be debated. That’s not the point. The spirit of this is to learn from history because we understand that elements do somewhat repeat. It’s like that old quote, “History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.” It’s very true. So I believe we should be on the lookout. It seems irresponsible to ignore what could be.
That being said, if you review the links I have provided, you will notice that I’m not seeing much hope of stopping this. In fact, I think it cannot be stopped because there are not enough people who know history. That being said, I do believe that the rest of us can (at the very least) see the train coming if we are willing to be objective and step out of its way before it hits us.
So take it for what it’s worth. Hopefully, I’m wrong. My only hang-up is wondering if I am right.
Be sure to read my article titled, “Give Some REAL Thought to the Civil War.”