I recently discussed reading habits and declining literacy rates in one of my Telegram groups. The discussion centered on “pleasure reading,” but as I thought about it further, something began to feel “off.” So, I decided to do some digging, and I saw a troubling shift in how Americans engage with written material. This shift is often framed as a matter of preference or technological evolution, but I would argue that the evidence suggests something more consequential. Declining literacy, combined with a broader retreat from sustained text-based engagement, is producing interlocking effects that reach far beyond reading habits. Unless I’m missing something, I would say that these trends merit examination not as isolated behaviors, but as structural changes with long-term societal consequences. Allow me a few minutes to show you what I mean.

In 2025, the United States had approximately 342 million residents, of whom roughly 267 million are adults aged 18 and older (U.S. Census Bureau, 2025). Adults, therefore, constitute about 78% of the population, and these individuals currently bear the primary responsibility for civic participation, economic productivity, and institutional continuity. According to numerous surveys, approximately 218 million adults access news and information through newspapers each month, combining both print and digital formats (Pew Research Center, 2024).

Now, at first glance, this suggests broad exposure to written information. Nothing to worry about, right? However, closer inspection reveals a more uneven reality, because aggregate reach obscures large differences in depth, frequency, and comprehension. As it turns out, traditional news consumption skews older, while younger cohorts increasingly disengage from text-based formats altogether. Match this idea with the impending population decline. For that matter, consider that our older generations will soon pass away. What is left? It seems to me that this relatively robust stat is about to fall out.

The argument is that technology is changing, and habits will change with it. That is fine. That is a logical debate, and I appreciate that. However, expanding the definition of reading only complicates the picture; it doesn’t resolve it. If reading includes books, magazines, e-readers, and audiobooks, participation rises only modestly, yet daily engagement remains extremely low. In fact, only about 16% of adults read for pleasure on a typical day (National Endowment for the Arts, 2022). Of course, even this figure is likely inflated by a narrow interpretation of what counts as reading, since many adults read only out of necessity for work, forms, or basic tasks.

A little more digging finds that data from the National Endowment for the Arts (2022) show that 48.5% of adults read at least one book in the past year, but only 37.6% read novels or short stories. Of course, the distinction matters because voluntary reading is strongly associated with vocabulary growth, comprehension, and sustained attention, while obligatory reading often reinforces only minimal functional skills. Interestingly, we see this reflected in the job market, as employers continually complain about not being able to find qualified candidates straight out of school. That’s an interesting correlation.

While that is already bad enough, apologists will argue that public schools, or more money for public schools, are the answer, but the more serious concern arises when literacy proficiency is examined directly. Roughly 54% of U.S. adults, approximately 130 million people, read below a sixth-grade level, and this also skews older (ProLiteracy, 2020). I want you to understand that the vast majority of these individuals are products of public education. Hence, public schools have already failed. More of the same provides more of the same. Thankfully, alternatives to public school exist.

Now, think about some of the dumb things you’ll find on social media these days. If you think about it in this light, it actually makes a lot of sense. Individuals at this reading level struggle with tasks such as extracting meaning from short passages, interpreting instructions, or synthesizing information across multiple sentences. You can pretty much forget in-depth research and analysis. Hence, their ideas are simplified and easily distorted without the necessary context. According to the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023), these adults fall at Level 1 or below, meaning they can manage only simple statements but falter as complexity increases. It makes total sense.

More concerning is the trend over time. From 2017 to 2023, average literacy scores declined by 12 points, while the share of adults at Level 1 or below increased by 9 percentage points (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023). Earlier gains among lower-performing groups have stalled and reversed. Simplistically, it seems that the situation is getting worse, fast.

Now, let’s think about this. What if functional illiteracy is not merely persistent, but accelerating due to generational shifts in media consumption? It’s probably not going to end well. Unfortunately, and as previously alluded to, the evidence suggests this is already underway.

Fewer than 20% of teenagers read books, magazines, or newspapers daily for pleasure, while more than 95% use social media platforms regularly, with 84% engaging daily (Pew Research Center, 2023; Rideout & Robb, 2023). Short-form video platforms now dominate youth attention, displacing long-form reading and even traditional television. Among children aged eight and younger, average daily screen time approaches 2.5 hours, with gaming increasing sharply over the past 4 years (Rideout & Robb, 2023).

These changes coincide with measurable reductions in sustained attention, as heavy exposure to rapid, short-form content is usually associated with diminished capacity for prolonged focus. The point is that prolonged focus is required for long-form reading. The data support this idea. Among young adults aged 16 to 24, functional illiteracy has risen from 15% in 2017 to 21% in 2023 (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023), affecting roughly 4.2 million people in that cohort alone. Not only is that alarming, but it shows that it’s happening rather quickly.

This is a huge issue! However, the downstream consequences of these trends are systemic and severe. Think about it. Low literacy undermines civic participation when individuals cannot fully interpret ballots, policies, or public arguments. It compromises informed consent in legal and medical contexts, increasing the likelihood of errors, misunderstandings, and exploitation. Economic mobility also suffers, as modern labor markets increasingly reward the ability to process complex written information. It makes understanding complex issues difficult. And this leads to the worst part; even the simple distribution of misinformation is elevated when someone cannot explore the contextual elements of the information they have been provided. And the list goes on.

Ironically, low literacy costs the U.S. economy an estimated $225 billion annually in lost productivity, healthcare expenditures, and crime-related expenses (ProLiteracy, 2020). In contrast, comprehensive adult literacy programs could generate cumulative economic benefits exceeding $2 trillion over the coming decade by improving workforce participation and reducing social costs. Yet, there is no emphasis on this possibility. In fact, most of America seems to be rallying against education at this point. Of course, this is largely due to the confusion around educational benefits and institutional differences.

The funny thing is that even modest improvements matter. Research from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development indicates that even modest improvements in adult literacy scores correlate with approximately 2.5% higher wages and measurable gains in economic productivity (OECD, 2013). For national economies, comprehensive literacy improvements have been associated with GDP increases of 1.5% or more, though effects vary by baseline literacy rates.

As you probably already know, our nation is complaining about our economic situation. Am I wrong to point out that our economy gets worse as literacy rates decline? Again, another interesting correlation. So, imagine what could happen if we TRULY educated our children and then set them free upon graduation. What would that do for our economic stability? But our current trajectories point in the opposite direction; public education does little to stop it, while government and public alike seem willing to prey upon and shackle our kids with related debt. Unfortunately, in some instances, we are even proactively telling our children that education isn’t worth it.

Meanwhile, the lowest-performing tenth of students now read at levels comparable to those seen in the 1970s, while inequality in educational outcomes grows faster in the United States than in other developed countries (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023). I’ll just be blunt and say that we’re going backwards, and if current trends continue, with literary reading declining by approximately 1.5% annually over the past decade (National Endowment for the Arts, 2022), functional illiteracy could reach 60% within a generation. But frankly, if you’ve paid attention to this article, it’s easy to see that given the acceleration among younger cohorts, even that estimate seems highly conservative.

Of course, we could take it a step further. Strategic forecasting suggests the emergence of a reinforcing cycle. As reading skills erode, individuals rely more heavily on video, automation, and AI-mediated summaries, further reducing direct engagement with text. This dependence lowers resistance to manipulation through simplified narratives and emotionally charged messaging. Not to mention the potential lack of research skills necessary to counter it.

Moreover, children raised in text-poor environments begin at a disadvantage that compounds over time, perpetuating intergenerational decline. In extreme form, this dynamic risks producing a two-tier society in which a shrinking literate minority (20%) controls information, governance, and economic leverage, while a majority (80%) remains functionally dependent. And for clarity on that point, that’s the Pareto Principle personified.

The fallout is significant. Legal disputes over contract validity, consent, and comprehension may become more common as literacy gaps widen. More immediately concerning is the well-documented relationship between literacy and criminal justice outcomes. Approximately 85% of juveniles in the criminal justice system are functionally illiterate, and 70% of adult inmates read below the fourth-grade level (National Institute for Literacy, 2008). Among state prison inmates, only 30% have a high school diploma or GED, compared to 82% of the general population (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2016). So, ask yourself: What happens to the crime rate when literacy continues to fall? What will that mean for you?

The causal mechanisms are fairly straightforward. Poor literacy limits legitimate employment opportunities, reducing economic alternatives to criminal activity. Individuals who cannot read legal documents or understand court proceedings face systemic disadvantages in navigating law enforcement encounters and judicial processes. On the other hand, recidivism rates demonstrate the point. Inmates who participate in correctional education programs are 43% less likely to return to prison within three years (RAND Corporation, 2013), suggesting that literacy improvement directly reduces criminal behavior. Imagine now if public education actually did its job!

Of course, the fiscal implications are substantial. The United States spends approximately $80 billion annually on incarceration (Prison Policy Initiative, 2023), while comprehensive adult literacy programs cost roughly $2,500 per participant annually (ProLiteracy, 2020). From a purely economic standpoint, even modest reductions in incarceration through improved literacy would generate massive savings and revenue. From a liberty standpoint, a population dependent on expansive policing and judicial infrastructure to manage the consequences of functional illiteracy is also a population that has essentially forfeited self-governance.

Jefferson’s warning that an educated citizenry is essential to freedom applies equally to literacy’s role in reducing the need for a coercive state apparatus. But the simple-minded continue to spread the idea that the cost of education is not their problem. Well, despite receiving all the benefits that come with an educated community (jobs, professional services, taxes, etc.), according to the data, the literacy issue will likely create a few problems in their neighborhood in the near future, as crime in their area increases.

Unfortunately, reversal at scale will not be easy. In fact, it’s likely not even possible at this point. However, individual actions, such as cultivating reading habits within families and communities, offer meaningful, albeit limited relief. Contrastive inquiry asks what would happen if targeted interventions were applied more broadly. Increased investment in adult literacy programs, early reading instruction, positive reinforcement of educational decisions, and environments that reward sustained attention could alter the trajectory. Better yet, what if we simply followed Jefferson’s advice on education?

Data from PIAAC indicate that improvement remains possible, but only with consistent and deliberate effort (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023). However, this cannot be the sole responsibility of public education, as they have demonstrated their inability to make the change in the first place. In fact, I think they should shoulder much of the blame here. After all, we wouldn’t be in this position if the state hadn’t failed at its job. Private and magnet schools sure seem like great alternatives, though.

It’s actually rather simple. If we want to fix our economic, security, and future situations, we should probably follow Thomas Jefferson’s advice. We need to educate our children to the fullest extent of their desires and make darn sure they are in a position to use it. This means the state should pay for school, not control it, because the only way to protect our Republic is to ensure that citizens are educated enough to do so.

Ideally, we want literacy to be at around 80% (or greater). Yes, it is possible. Many countries have literacy rates over 80%, including developed nations such as Poland (99.8%) and Tajikistan (99.8%) (World Bank, 2023). Heck, even Ghana (80%) and Uganda (79%) have solid literacy rates. I’ll just reiterate that the literacy rate in the United States is declining, with recent reports indicating that 54% of adults read at or below a sixth-grade level, and that a significant percentage of students are not meeting basic reading proficiency standards (ProLiteracy, 2020).

The implications for communication are immediate. I want you to understand that if only 40 to 50 million adults can reliably process complex written material, audiences for nuanced argument and detailed analysis will continue to shrink. Think about the long-term implications of the problem, not the immediate. Think downstream using cause-and-effect. At the same time, understand that this reality intensifies competition for attention while simultaneously granting strategic advantage to those who retain strong literacy skills. And this is to say that if you want the strategic advantage in your future, you need to exercise your reading skills. If you want your family to succeed, prioritize reading for them.

Clearly, you’re reading this, so you’re already on the better side of this problem. I’m sharing this to persuade you to be mindful of the ideas you push to others. Preserving and transmitting reading and research skills, particularly to younger generations, may prove decisive in maintaining their civic competence and economic resilience. You would only tell your enemies that education isn’t important (think about that). At the same time, I want you to understand that the decline in literacy is not a cultural curiosity. It is actually a structural risk to democratic, economic, and social stability that WILL (and already does) impact you, and it demands recognition before its consequences become our larger reality.

Keep Learning! You might also enjoy:

• Imagine If Education Were Valued
• The Problem with Public Education
• Epistemic Rigidity from an Education POV

References

Bureau of Justice Statistics. (2016). Educational and vocational training in state and federal prisons, 2016. U.S. Department of Justice. https://bjs.ojp.gov/

Davis, L. M., Bozick, R., Steele, J. L., Saunders, J., & Miles, J. N. V. (2013). Evaluating the effectiveness of correctional education: A meta-analysis of programs that provide education to incarcerated adults. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR266.html

National Center for Education Statistics. (2023). Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) 2017/2023: U.S. results. U.S. Department of Education. https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/piaac/

National Endowment for the Arts. (2022). Reading at risk: A survey of literary reading in America. https://www.arts.gov/

National Institute for Literacy. (2008). Correctional education facts. U.S. Department of Education. https://lincs.ed.gov/

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2013). OECD skills outlook 2013: First results from the Survey of Adult Skills. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264204256-en

Pew Research Center. (2023). Teens, social media and technology 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/12/11/teens-social-media-and-technology-2023/

Pew Research Center. (2024). News consumption across media platforms. https://www.pewresearch.org/

Prison Policy Initiative. (2023). Mass incarceration: The whole pie 2023. https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2023.html

ProLiteracy. (2020). Adult literacy facts. https://www.proliteracy.org/

Rideout, V., & Robb, M. B. (2023). The Common Sense census: Media use by kids age zero to eight, 2023. Common Sense Media. https://www.commonsensemedia.org/

U.S. Census Bureau. (2025). Annual estimates of the resident population by single year of age and sex for the United States. https://www.census.gov/

World Bank. (2023). Literacy rate, adult total (% of ages 15 and above). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS