A Potential Forecast of Shifting Economies, Wars, and Prosperity

In light of recent events, I have received numerous requests to share a little more about my projection model / strategic forecast model. Please understand that my reluctance to share has not been about hiding anything. Instead, I just don’t want my readers to panic or make rash decisions based on this model. Still, I understand the desire (and importance) to examine it, so that’s why I’m sharing more of it today.

Now, before I do, let me make it clear right off the bat that this forecast model is just that – a forecast. It’s an estimate or prediction based on analyzing very specific data. With that in mind, I want you to think of it as a potential glimpse into the future based on observing past human behavior. I also want you to understand that it’s not guaranteed and, frankly, it’s mostly speculative. However, at the same time, I think it’s rather compelling. As you can probably already tell, I have mixed feelings about it.

I also want to emphasize that I’m not some modern-day Nostradamus or Edgar Casey, nor do I aspire to be one. That’s not what this is meant to be. Instead, I’m simply someone who has a passion for history and happened to notice an intriguing pattern when looking at historical events in broader terms. There is nothing mystical or special about this other than me having seen history through a lens that many others probably haven’t thought to look through.

Now, let’s delve into what I saw. Generally speaking, this model revolves around just a few basic concepts. Basically, we can observe significant shifts in how the world conducts business, leading to conflicts involving more than just two nations. Alongside these changes, we also witness advancements in warfare, medicine, and technology. These are what I call “markers.” When we examine history through this lens and when we look for the markers, some intriguing patterns emerge.

Today, I’ll only be sharing seven groupings, although there were initially several others. However, as we go further back in time, the documentation becomes less clear and debatable. So, I’ve chosen to focus on the ones I’m presenting here. For this particular exercise, we’ll begin our journey in the 15th century.

Group One Model:

• Economic Issues: Economic issues emerged in the late 15th century, specifically leading up to and during the Italian Wars (1494-1559), which involved various European powers.
• Tensions and War: The economic issues led to increased tensions and a significant war around the mid-16th century.
• Economic Transformation: Following the resolution of the war, there is a subsequent phase of economic transformation and relative prosperity lasting for approximately 10-20 years, extending into the late 1550s or early 1560s.

The Markers

Warfare Advancements: During the Italian Wars, there were several radical advancements in warfare. One significant development was the increased use of firearms, particularly handheld firearms such as muskets and arquebuses. These weapons revolutionized the battlefield, shifting the balance of power away from heavily armored knights and towards infantry forces. Using gunpowder artillery also became more widespread, enabling more effective and destructive siege warfare.

Medical Advancements: Several things stick out here. The College of Physicians was founded (Royal College of Physicians of London). Military surgeons began putting together surgical chests. “De Fabrica Corporis Humani” revolutionizes European medicine by correcting previous misconceptions.

Business Shifts: The economic issues and subsequent wars of the Italian Wars significantly impacted how business was conducted. The war disrupted trade routes and caused economic instability, leading to the decline of some city-states and the rise of others. It also stimulated the growth of mercenary armies and increased the demand for military supplies, creating opportunities for arms manufacturers and suppliers. Additionally, the war led to the emergence of powerful banking families, such as the Medici, who capitalized on the financial needs of warring states.

Group Two Model:

• Economic Issues: Economic issues emerge in the early 17th century, leading to the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) involving multiple European powers.
• Tensions and War: The economic issues lead to escalating tensions and a significant war around the mid-17th century.
• Economic Transformation: Following the resolution of the war, there was a period of economic transformation and relative prosperity lasting for approximately 10-20 years, extending into the late 1640s or early 1650s

The Markers

Warfare Advancements: The Thirty Years’ War witnessed several notable advancements in warfare. One significant development was the increased use of standing armies, professional soldiers paid and equipped by the state. This marked a departure from the reliance on mercenary forces. The war also saw the continued use and improvement of firearms, including introducing more standardized muskets and the wider adoption of artillery. The use of fortifications and siege warfare tactics also evolved during this period.

Medical Advancements: The medical advancements of this time included surgeons becoming more skilled in treating wounds and amputations, the understanding of hygiene and infection control improved to some extent, and the circulatory system was finally defined and explained.

Business Shifts: The economic issues and war of the Thirty Years’ War had profound effects on business. The war disrupted trade and commerce, leading to widespread economic decline and inflation. Many businesses and industries suffered, while others profited from supplying the armies with weapons, food, and other necessities. Additionally, the war contributed to the decline of the feudal system and the rise of centralized nation-states, which played a significant role in shaping future economic systems.

Group Three Model:

• Economic Issues: Roughly around the 1760s-1770s, leading to the Revolutionary War (1775-1783).
• Tensions and War: Revolutionary War (1775-1783) – which involved many nations.
• Economic Transformation: The period of relative prosperity and economic growth in the United States following the Revolutionary War can be associated with the late 18th century and throughout the 19th century.

The Markers

Warfare Advancements: The Revolutionary War represented a shift in warfare tactics and strategies, particularly for the American forces. The colonists adopted unconventional warfare methods, such as guerrilla tactics and asymmetric warfare, to combat the superior military strength of the British Empire. They relied on mobile militias and sharpshooters, utilizing their knowledge of the local terrain to their advantage. The use of irregular warfare tactics significantly influenced future military doctrines. Moreover, advancements in weaponry began to emerge. This included weapons such as the Puckle gun, the Ferguson Rifle, and other repeating rifles.

Medical Advancements: The Revolutionary War highlighted the importance of medical care for soldiers, improving the organization and efficiency of military hospitals and field medical units. It also increased the understanding of diseases and infections and the need for sanitation measures to prevent their spread. More importantly, we saw things like inoculations, the first successful appendectomy, the first surgical periodical, and the discovery that citrus fruits prevent scurvy (among many others).

Business Shifts: The economic transformation following the Revolutionary War was characterized by establishing the United States as an independent nation and pursuing economic independence. This period witnessed the development of a new economic system based on capitalism and free trade principles. The United States implemented policies encouraging domestic manufacturing and trade, including protective tariffs and establishing the first national bank. These measures laid the foundation for the rapid industrialization and economic growth that would follow in the 19th century.

Group Four Model:

• Economic Issues: Economic tensions leading up to the Civil War emerged in the mid-19th century, particularly in the 1850s.
• Tensions and War: Civil War (1861-1865) – which involved many nations.
• Economic Transformation: The period of relative prosperity following the Civil War can be associated with the late 19th century, often referred to as the Reconstruction Era and the Gilded Age.

The Markers

Warfare Advancements: The Civil War brought significant changes in warfare due to technological advancements and new strategies. It witnessed the widespread use of rifled muskets, which had greater accuracy and range than smoothbore muskets used in previous conflicts. This, combined with the use of entrenchments and field fortifications, resulted in increased casualties and necessitated changes in battlefield tactics. The Civil War also marked the introduction of ironclad warships, such as the USS Monitor and CSS Virginia, which revolutionized naval warfare.

Medical Advancements: The Civil War profoundly impacted medical practices and advancements. The conflict generated a high number of casualties, leading to significant developments in battlefield medicine. The war saw the establishment of more organized and efficient field hospitals, advancements in surgical techniques (including amputations), and improved anesthesia and wound care. The experiences and innovations of Civil War surgeons laid the groundwork for modern military medicine. Moreover, we saw the first painless surgery with general anesthesia, the discovery of how to prevent puerperal fever, and the first woman to achieve a medical degree (Elizabeth Blackwell).

Business Shifts: The economic transformation following the Civil War can be associated with the late 19th century, often referred to as the Reconstruction Era and the Gilded Age. This period witnessed rapid industrialization, technological advancements, and the expansion of railroads and telegraph networks. The war stimulated the growth of industries such as iron, steel, and armaments, which continued to thrive during the post-war period. The United States experienced substantial economic growth, urbanization, and the rise of large corporations and industrialists, shaping the business landscape for years to come.

Group Five Model:

• Economic Issues: Economic issues leading up to World War II, including the Great Depression, emerged in the 1920s and 1930s.
• Tensions and War: World War II / Cold War (1939-1945 *1953) – which involved many nations.
• Economic Transformation: The post-war economic boom and the period of relative prosperity can be associated with the late 1940s and throughout the 1950s and 1960s.

It should be noted that the end of World War II is subject to different interpretations and considerations. While the commonly accepted date for the end of World War II is 1945, it must be noted that Truman’s declaration did not come until December 31, 1946, and his acknowledgment that “a state of war still exists” indeed highlight the complexity of defining the exact end of the war. Additionally, the onset of the Cold War, which can be seen as an extension or a result of World War II, further blurs the distinction between the two conflicts because it started before the end of World War II. Hence, it can be considered a part of the conflict. Therefore, a broader time frame for World War II and its aftermath should be considered, encompassing the period from the late 1930s to the late 1940s but also including the establishment of the post-war order and the beginning of the Cold War.

The Markers

Warfare Advancements: World War II introduced significant advancements in warfare due to technological innovations and strategies. It saw the extensive use of aircraft, including bombers and fighter planes, which played a crucial role in strategic bombing and air superiority battles. The war witnessed the development and deployment of powerful tanks, such as the German Tiger and the Soviet T-34, revolutionizing armored warfare. Additionally, radar, cryptography, and other communication technologies significantly influenced military operations. Of course, we cannot forget rockets and nuclear weapons.

Medical Advancements: World War II led to numerous medical advancements driven by the need to treat large numbers of wounded soldiers. These advancements included the widespread use of blood transfusions, the development of new antibiotics (such as penicillin), and improved surgical techniques. The war also accelerated advancements in prosthetics and rehabilitation for injured soldiers. The experiences and medical breakthroughs during World War II laid the foundation for modern military medicine and civilian healthcare.

Business Shifts: The post-war economic boom and the period of relative prosperity can be associated with the late 1940s and throughout the 1950s and 1960s. This era, often called the “Golden Age of Capitalism,” witnessed significant economic growth, consumerism, the rise of the dollar, and technological advancements. Industries such as manufacturing, automobiles, aerospace, electronics, and telecommunications thrived during this period. The war created a massive demand for goods and services, and the subsequent peace led to a surge in production and consumption, driving economic prosperity.

Pattern Hypothesis:

Indeed, there is much more than could be listed. And I have tried this many ways (to the same conclusion), but what are we truly seeing here? Well, there was clearly a pattern, but I didn’t understand it at first.

Now, I’ll define that base momentarily, but I had to share the preceding to provide the necessary context to understand the model itself. However, I also need to highlight what I originally saw. That way, you can understand more of the context and motivation.

The first thing I saw was an interesting grouping of timeframes. For instance, when I first looked at the groupings, I noticed that the time between Group Three and Group Four was roughly 71 years. Between Group Four and Group Five, it stretched to about 89 years. Then, between Group Five and Group Six, it was around 70 years. I thought it was interesting that the groups were so consistent. Of course, I found that the years can be condensed to an even tighter average depending on what was included or omitted. Essentially, I just had to define what was significant or not. This understanding opened the door to the creation of the “markers.”

Similarly, when examining the rise of events, the pattern appeared to be consistent as well. Take original Group Three, which spanned from 1763 to 1774, lasting for 11 years. Then, Group Four covered 1844 to 1856, totaling 12 years. Finally, Group Five occurred from 1925 to 1936, spanning 11 years. Once again, a very tight grouping that could be honed by better defining what was important.

So, I created a short list of broad markers (defined herein). Of course, I considered a variety of potential markers, and I have experimented with different models to refine these timelines, including the 61-10-10 model. This model suggests an average of 60-65 years of relative peace, followed by approximately ten years of economic upheaval and a 10-year war cycle. It’s really close, albeit not perfect, but really only because it’s hard to say what is important or not. I’m a little biased because I think it’s all important, but I also know that’s not entirely true. Still, despite having its limitations, it does provide some valuable insights – depending on the specific markers (or events) you choose.

Before I continue, I should mention again that as we consider these patterns and make forecasts, it’s important to remember that the ending of World War II introduced some ambiguity. Therefore, the actual timeline moving forward might have some variation until the next cycle helps to provide more clarity. Consequently, any dates moving forward should be considered as ranges to take into account.

Regardless, after years of experimentation and critical reflection, I was able to create a basic outline. And even without trying to hone it down into something tighter, the model is compelling enough. At least, in my opinion. The base pattern hypothesis is relatively simple and only requires the following markers.

• Economic Issues: Economic “issues” tend to emerge approximately every 60-70 years. These are merely indications that the way that business is handled is about to fundamentally shift.
• Tensions and War: These economic issues often lead to significant tensions and conflicts that result in wars that have global implications. This appears to be a struggle between the new order and the old order (perhaps it’s resistance to change). And because it’s a fundamental shift, it impacts numerous nations.
• Shift in Warfare: The wars tend to occur between those impacted most by the economic shift. These would normally be the “superpowers” of the time. Weaker powers typically pick sides and support accordingly. However, these superpowers tend to have advanced militaries and capabilities that are somewhat equal to their opponents. Hence, and probably out of need, the wars bring about drastic shifts in warfare tactics and strategies along with technological advancements.
• Economic Transformation: Wars end. Following the war, there is a period of significant economic transformation and relatively significant prosperity lasting approximately 20-30 years. Then things begin to calm down as everyone gets used to the new norm.

That’s a fairly strong pattern, and it seems to happen over and over again. And due to the general markers, it’s fairly easy to track or mark the timelines. As mentioned, I have made various attempts to hone the model. Some are more successful than others. At the same time, it could be argued that such attempts to hone the model are entirely unnecessary because the model is very telling as it is. However, if it is correct, then Group Six should tell the tale. And as it stands, at least so far, Group Six has largely demonstrated itself to fit the base model. I will provide Group Six and then provide some commentary for clarification on each part.

Group Six:

Economic Issues: Dramatic economic issues should be realized in the early 21st century. These should be unmistakable in the mid-2020s or early 2030s. These may be due to a combination of factors such as technological shifts, resource scarcity, and geopolitical tensions. These advancements will contribute to a dramatic shift in how the world does business. Things to look out for include artificial intelligence, a dying dollar, digital currency, robotics, autonomous travel, etc.

Commentary: Bitcoin launched in January 2009. The Currency Crisis began in 2006. By 2008, the iPhone was a reality, and Artificial Intelligence was already underway. We knew then that things were about to change. We also knew that our dollar was in trouble. However, these things were merely the start of what was to come, not the realization. The realization takes time to manifest itself, just like every other time in history. At the time of this writing, we still haven’t even begun to see the realization of what all this means. However, it could be argued that we are definitely getting close.

Tensions and War: The economic issues will likely escalate, resulting in significant tensions and conflicts around the mid-21st century. We will likely see evidence of this as the economic situation worsens. I would imagine that we will see this fully realized by the mid-2020s or early 2030s, and the model holds true, the war will begin and last until the mid-2050s to 2060s. These conflicts will likely involve a mix of traditional and emerging global powers vying for control over dwindling resources and economic dominance. The best candidates are currently Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and their proxies. Considering the dying Petro-Dollar, there is also an argument to be made for a currency war that turns hot. Unfortunately for the United States, this part of the cycle coincides with another potential cycle of global dominance. It has been theorized that superpowers begin their decline at about 250 years as the nation loses its sense of self.

Commentary: The story has been consistent since 1999 – be on the lookout for China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea, along with their friends and proxies. These will likely be the opposing nations to Western dominance. And that’s exactly what we see today. All of this is in the news. China’s expansion, Russia’s situation, the growing list of BRICS nations, the dying dollar, the abandonment of the dollar by other nations, and the potential for national and global Central Bank Digital Currencies. This list goes on and on, and we are watching tensions rise as a result. Rumors of war are everywhere, and tensions are high. War will likely come next. Of course, based on some of the refinement models that I have done and matched against other models, I feel strongly that this situation will manifest sooner rather than later. I would also argue that our lack of unity will be a massive problem in that conflict and contribute directly to our potential loss. However, the model does suggest that there might still be some time. I guess we’ll see.

Shift in Warfare: When the war begins, we will see a struggle for one side to dominate the other. There will be a considerable back-and-forth. As a result, we can expect a notable shift in warfare tactics and strategies. This will likely include advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and unmanned autonomous systems. If history holds true, the escalation will be swift and brutal and will involve civilians to some degree. These developments will fundamentally reshape the nature of war and the balance of power moving forward. Those without such technology will be forced to develop new tactics as well, and this will ultimately shift how war is fought for years to come.

Commentary: Drones, satellite warfare, and the Space Force (which was founded in December 2019) are excellent examples of what this might be talking about. Interestingly, we have also seen how limited technology can be against those who choose to abandon technological warfare. The way in which war is fought has already begun to change, but it will be much more dramatic before it’s all said and done. However, we must remember that the actual global war has not materialized yet, so the full scope of this probably has yet to be seen.

Of course, some might argue that the war has already begun. When considering things like 5th Gen Warfare, cyber warfare, and the proxy wars already underway, I can concede to that idea. After all, there is always an escalation to the peak.

That said, I can probably give you an example of what this might look like. Think of World War II and when it began. It started small and without a shot fired. It escalated over a few years. Similarly, if you think of aircraft at the beginning of World War II versus aircraft at the end of World War II, they are night and day. That was only 20 years. Well, that’s the sort of shift we are likely about to see. Factor in advancements such as rockets and nukes at the end, and you can begin to appreciate the changes likely to come. The good news is that while this is all really heavy, there is light at the end of the tunnel for those who make it through.

Economic Transformation: Following the resolution of the conflicts, there will likely be a period of economic transformation and relative prosperity lasting for approximately 20-30 years, extending into the late 2060s or early 2070s. This will be true regardless of who wins. This transformation will likely be driven by technological innovations, such as renewable energy sources (like hydrogen), advanced manufacturing, and the widespread adoption of automation, leading to a restructuring of global economies. The new way of doing business will become the new norm, and adaptation will have been achieved. Moreover, what is learned during this cycle will significantly contribute to medicine and chronic disease resolution moving forward. For example, in the face of rapid antibiotic resistance and considering the advancements of technology in sequencing, we might very well see a shift from antibiotics to things like phage therapy.

Commentary: Things will normalize. However, the world we see after this will be entirely different from the world before. Think of the world before and after the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II. It is night and day each time. That is what we are walking into. Everything is about to fundamentally change. The elders will struggle with this most. The existing powers will struggle as well, and they fight to retain their dwindling power. However, life will go on, and advancements will happen. Our ability to adapt, embrace change, and use that change to our advantage is what will ultimately dictate our lives moving forward. This is your strategic opportunity, though. Retool now! Be like Vanderbilt during the shift from canals to railroads, and you’ll be fine.

Looking into the Distant Future

Looking beyond Group Six, we know what to expect. We will, once again, see a fundamental change in how the world does business, advancements in medical and health understanding, and things that change how war is fought. Based on the demonstrated pattern, we can surmise a hypothetical projection and strategic forecast for Group Seven. Here is what I came up with:

Group Seven:

As we reach out into the future, it is anyone’s guess what will or will not occur. However, using the model as a guide, there are some things that we should probably think about. More importantly, we can get a rough idea of when to expect some of these events to occur.

Economic Issues: Economic issues will (once again) begin to arise in the late 21st century. These hints should begin to manifest into “obvious” in the 2080s or 2090s. These might stem from anything ranging from environmental degradation and the exhaustion of natural resources to things like radical population declines. Another possibility might be the pressures placed upon governments to slim down resulting from efficiencies created by technology, rendering the need for large governments obsolete. Of course, these entities will likely not want to give up such power without a fight.

Generally speaking, and regardless of the reasons, there will be economic issues that create tensions. Of course, it would also be wise to consider the potential for a cataclysm to present itself. This might include a series of massive earthquakes, solar storms, EMPs, or even things like the unleashing of the Yellowstone Caldera. Either way, technological dependency may prove to be a big problem as areas of our long-neglected infrastructure and electrical grid are negatively impacted by various events. For example, if governments and banks begin to shift to digital currencies, a grid failure could shake our financial system and destroy faith in such institutions. The result could be catastrophic.

Tensions and War: The economic issues (whatever they are) will likely exacerbate geopolitical tensions and trigger significant conflicts around the mid-22nd century, specifically in the 2130s or 2140s. I can also imagine widespread civil wars as governments attempt to hold on to power, but people recognize that the need for a large government is no longer there. Of course, depending on the changes that come about during Group Six, these conflicts may also revolve around access to remaining habitable regions, the possibility of water scarcity, and the control of remaining advanced technologies necessary for survival. This will likely be a challenging time for anyone. However, if the United States were not victorious during Group Six, then Group Seven would be exceptionally difficult for American citizens. Either way and regardless of the reasons, expect tensions to lead to conflict.

Shift in Warfare: By this time, artificial intelligence and robotics will have likely reached a currently unimaginable level of sophistication. Still, and as humans do, we will likely attempt to use these technologies in an attempt to thrust our will upon our fellow humans. Due to the complexities, these conflicts bring about a radical shift in warfare tactics and strategies driven by tech advancements. These might include things ranging from genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and space-based weaponry. Similarly, there is little doubt that weaponry will have changed significantly by this point. The unarmed will be completely dominated. Nonetheless, these developments will reshape the nature of warfare. By then, these may stretch beyond Earth’s surface and even involve new space frontiers.

Economic Transformation: Following the resolution of the conflicts, there will likely be a period of economic transformation and relative prosperity lasting for approximately 20-30 years, extending into the late 2140s or early 2150s. Again, things will normalize, and people will adapt to that new norm. This transformation will likely be propelled by breakthroughs in sustainable technologies, space colonization efforts (probably out of need), and the integration of human and artificial intelligence, leading to the emergence of new economic paradigms and the revitalization of global economies. It is also quite possible that “rebel” humans will find and colonize uninhabited planets in an attempt to create a home more conducive to their beliefs and desires. Moreover, things we can only dream about regarding health and wellness will be achieved. Yet, I have a feeling that somehow, and in many ways, future generations will see this specific time as the true beginning of modern medicine.

And the cycle continues. However, what that really looks like is well beyond my imagination. In many ways, it would be like someone from the 1800s trying to imagine life today. It’s almost impossible, other than to say that the pattern will seem oddly familiar if the cycle continues.

Conclusion

At the very least, it’s an interesting pattern to consider. Am I right? Am I wrong? That is for you and the future to decide. Perhaps this is all just some crazy coincidence. Yet, these seem like strong possibilities. So, take this information for what it’s worth – which may be very little or everything we need to know. Regardless, it’s a fun exercise that exposes us to the importance of history. However, if the cycle is real, we better hold on. Things are probably about to get very bumpy.

At the very least, I am hoping that this model wakes some of us up. Even if this model is wrong, I would love for it to encourage our collective understanding and course correction. Perhaps at some point, we can break free from our repetitive behaviors and advance ourselves to a much higher level. Unfortunately, I fear most of us will die, having never known if that day will ever come.

Now, let me close this article by emphatically stating that historical events and patterns can be subject to different interpretations and perspectives. For example, I am often asked why World War I is not considered in this model. My answer is that while a lot of people died, not much changed. However, it was a part of the catalyst for what was to come. The criteria selected for this model were very specific. At present, it is unclear if the criteria were too specific or way off. Time will tell.

That said, this model presents a particular view based on my selection and analysis. Other historians likely have different interpretations of the same events. Similarly, this model is somewhat rooted in “selection bias” because I’m choosing specific criteria and omitting others. You can decide if I chose correctly.

Furthermore, there might be other underlying factors contributing to these patterns that I have not considered. Similarly, I think it’s important to consider the complexity of historical causality and the many factors that contribute to historical events. Similarly, history is written by the winners, so there is a good chance that I’m missing a few things which might hinder this model’s reliability. However, we must choose specific parameters to make such models. Some will be correct; others will not.

And with all of this in mind, understand that this model is nothing more than an interesting hypothesis based on historical patterns. I believe in it, but that does not mean that I expect or even want everyone else to. In fact, this is one of those things that I really hope I am wrong about. However, I believe the patterns are compelling, and that alone gives me pause. At the very least, I invite you to remain curious, inquisitive, and open to the possibility of new discoveries that may challenge our existing beliefs. But let’s also approach this with critical thinking, an understanding of historical complexities, an appreciation for diverse interpretations of history, and the possibility that I am right.

If you would like to review elements of this model in a little more detail, you can look at my article titled “History Doesn’t Repeat – But It Does Rhyme.“